Broker starts Aditya Birla Real Estate at Buy; sees FY27 pre-sales falling 49%

Anand Rathi Research has initiated coverage of Aditya Birla Real Estate (ABREL), the listed parent of Birla Estates, with a Buy rating and a target price of ₹1,345 per share. The broker said the target implies 34% upside. In its report dated 2 November 2026, the broker describes the company as moving from a Worli-led developer to a more diversified and more capital-efficient real estate platform, even as near-term sales slow.

Valuation and the pre-sales outlook

The target rests on a net asset value of ₹15,020 crore, made up of ₹11,350 crore from residential and ₹3,950 crore from commercial assets, less net debt of ₹280 crore. The broker forecasts pre-sales of ₹4,170 crore in FY27, a fall of 49% from ₹8,140 crore in FY26. It expects recovery to ₹7,080 crore in FY28 and ₹9,820 crore in FY29. The FY29 forecast is below management's target of ₹15,000 crore for that year, which management has reaffirmed.

On business development, the broker cites about ₹6,000 crore of additions so far this year and a further opportunity pipeline of about ₹60,000 crore. The company said it added about ₹6,200 crore in the first six months and remains confident of exceeding its ₹10,000 crore BD guideline for FY27.

The Niyaara Tower C deferment

On the Q2 FY27 call on 26 October 2026, the company said the redesign of Tower C at Birla Niyaara, Worli, raises net gross development value for the overall Worli land parcel by ₹1,900 crore, while potentially reducing pre-sales this year. The company combined the original Niyaara plot with a second plot acquired later from the Wadias and used the floor space index from the adjacent plot in Tower C. Management said no additional consideration was paid specifically for loading that FSI into Tower C. The broker calls the deferment value-accretive.

Management said FY27 pre-sales would clearly not reach ₹8,000 crore. Unnamed analysts on the same call estimated ₹6,000 crore to ₹7,000 crore. The company said 78% of its overall inventory has been sold, leaving 22% available. It has not disclosed the configuration, price or unit count for the redesigned Tower C, and it expects to bring the tower to market in Q2 FY28.

The company reported the following for Q2 FY27:

• Total income of ₹268 crore, against ₹31 crore in Q2 FY26, a rise of 755%. Consolidated figures, which include discontinued operations, are higher at about ₹861 crore.
• Consolidated net profit of ₹918.70 crore. This includes an exceptional gain of ₹868.12 crore from the sale of the pulp and paper business to ITC, for a consideration of ₹3,476 crore.
• Booking value of ₹298 crore, down 67% year on year.
• Collections of ₹752 crore, up 47% year on year. Cumulative collections across projects have crossed ₹10,000 crore.

The profit figure is inflated by a one-time gain from the ITC sale, so the operating trend is better read from booking value and collections. Booking value fell sharply in the quarter, while collections grew, which reflects payments on homes sold in earlier periods.

What investors will watch

The broker names three monitorables: conversion of business development into projects, launch execution, and the pace of the pre-sales recovery. The broker's view depends on the pipeline converting into sales. On the Q2 call, management said the Khar launch is expected in January to February 2027. Tower C is targeted for July to September 2027. Vashi is due in FY28. A new joint development agreement at Hinjewadi, Pune, announced on 23 October 2026, covers about 1.25 million square feet of saleable area, with revenue potential of about ₹1,650 crore. Under the deal, the company receives 75% of revenue. The next checkpoints are the Khar launch and the Tower C timetable.