Jefferies sees sales value outpacing volume as developers ramp up H2 FY27 launches

A brokerage report from Jefferies, made public on 2 November 2026, expects strong housing demand and a healthy September quarter to push real estate developers to bring forward project launches in the second half of FY27, the October 2026 to March 2027 period. The report's central argument is simple: sales are holding up, unsold stock is coming down, and launches should follow from the December quarter.

Sales value is outrunning volume

Residential sales value across India's top seven cities is estimated to have risen 17-20% year on year in July-September 2026, while sales by area rose 6-8%, Jefferies estimated. Blended price realisation rose about 10% in the quarter, while the number of apartments sold stayed largely flat over three months. Jefferies links the gap to higher prices and better realisation per unit.

A separate set of figures in the same coverage, covering the year so far, puts value growth near 12% and volume growth near 6%. Those figures measure a different period, so they should not be read as a revision of the quarterly numbers.

Launches were roughly flat by area year on year in the quarter, partly because the festive season moved into September. Overall residential inventory stands at about 18 months of sales based on the last 12 months, in line with the five-year average. By region, the National Capital Region and the Mumbai Metropolitan Region recorded volume growth above 10%, while Bengaluru was broadly flat.

Company estimates differ by source

Jefferies expects major listed developers to post sales growth above 20% in H2 FY27, after a subdued first half. The brokerage's per-company estimates vary by the summary used, and each should be read on its own terms.

• Godrej Properties: Jefferies' estimate in the report is pre-sales above ₹12,000 crore in the December quarter, about 50% higher year on year. A separate summary of the same brokerage's coverage puts the figure at ₹7,000-7,500 crore.
• Lodha: the brokerage's coverage points to H2 launches of ₹19,100 crore, against ₹4,100 crore in H1. Lodha's own earnings call put planned H2 launches at just under ₹20,000 crore.
• Oberoi Realty: a summary of the brokerage's coverage estimates record pre-sales of about ₹9,000 crore for the quarter, of which the Gurgaon Three Sixty North project would contribute about ₹7,900 crore.
• DLF: a summary of the coverage expects sales of ₹500-1,000 crore, with limited launches and low inventory restricting near-term volumes.

Jefferies said in the report: "Sustenance sales have been very strong, lowering inventory, and launch momentum is strong from the December quarter onward." The same coverage says the brokerage's preferred names are DLF, Godrej Properties and Lodha. That is the brokerage's view, not a recommendation from this publication.

The company results so far show a mixed picture. Godrej Properties reported a Q2 FY27 booking value of ₹8,008 crore, while its net profit fell 62% to ₹154 crore from ₹405 crore a year earlier, mainly on higher costs. Lodha reported a profit after tax of ₹1,013 crore for July-September 2026, up 28%, and pre-sales of ₹5,037 crore, up 10%. Lodha's FY27 pre-sales guidance is ₹24,000 crore.

What investors will watch

Godrej's CEO, Gaurav Pandey, said the company had a cumulative launch pipeline of more than ₹32,000 crore for H2 FY27. The company said it expects approvals for 80% of its Q4 launches by late November to mid-December, with the balance in early to mid-January 2027. It also said pollution-control restrictions in the National Capital Region can affect construction activity. Launch timing depends on approvals, so the forecasts are management and brokerage outlooks, not realised results.

The next test comes with the October-December 2026 quarter results of listed developers. Investors will check whether launches arrive on schedule, whether pre-sales in the December quarter match the forecasts, and whether sales value keeps growing faster than volume.